After three years scouting and a few hundred decks, the signals I weight have almost nothing to do with what founders think they're being judged on.
3
years scouting
18
months: the bear-case horizon I ask about
7
days of calendar I want to see
What I weight heavily
- Founder-customer proximity. Has the founder, in the last month, personally handled an inbound? Done a customer call? Closed a deal? Distance correlates with death.
- Speed of iteration. Not how fast they ship code, how fast they change their minds when the data tells them to. Most teams can't.
- Honesty in the bear case. Ask any founder what kills the company in 18 months. The good ones answer in one sentence. The bad ones explain why nothing can.
- The team's calendar. Where the founder spends their week is who they're becoming. Show me the last seven days of meetings.
Founder-customer proximity
Handled an inbound or closed a deal this month?
Speed of iteration
How fast they change their minds when the data says so.
Honest bear case
What kills the company, in one sentence.
The calendar
Where the week goes is who they're becoming.
What I quietly ignore
- The TAM slide. It's almost always wrong, almost always rounded up.
- The competitive matrix where they have all the checkmarks. Comedy.
- "Ex-FAANG" without context. Some FAANG roles teach you nothing about building from zero.
- Logos of "advisors" who don't respond to email.
What I ignore
- The TAM slide
- The all-checkmarks competitive matrix
- "Ex-FAANG" with no context
- Advisors who don't answer email
What I weight
- Founder-customer proximity
- Speed of changing their mind
- Honesty in the bear case
- The last seven days of meetings
The two questions I always ask
"Walk me through the last customer you lost. Why?"
"If you had to cut 50% of the roadmap tomorrow, what stays?"
Both answers are usually more informative than the entire deck.